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Whenever students face academic hardships, they tend to run to online essay help companies. Politicians are apparently slowly beginning to see the connection between environmental destruction caused by the nuclear and fossil-fuel-based economy and the growing number of natural disasters and worldwide viral epidemics. All in all, the solar industry is fortunate to have escaped with just a black eye so far.

Limiting ourselves to absolutely necessary business trips, shifting office work to the home, and foregoing trade shows and indoor events has not really hurt us. Productivity may even have increased at many companies, while costs have often come down.

Digitalization was unstoppable even before the pandemic — it has simply overtaken us a bit more brutally and quickly. Once the crisis has died down, we may also be able to look forward to some new, qualified and motivated workers from other industries who have fared less well. Former employees from the automotive sector or the steel industry who are fed up with uncertain conditions could soon put an end to the shortage of skilled workers in the solar industry.

That would be good news for once! For small- to medium-sized systems, at least, prices have now reached a level that will be difficult to undercut. Also, the module prices themselves have stabilized across nearly all technologies over the past few weeks. Some manufacturers of both PV panels and inverters are even attempting to push through slightly higher prices, which they justify with production-capacity bottlenecks or swelling demand from Asia, of which there was scant evidence in September.

Nevertheless, the nosedive in prices of the past few months has leveled out. However, module classes were adjusted slightly upward since the trend toward ever-higher power ratings has continued, without any notable change in the absolute cost of the individual modules. Although there is some evidence of concepts for sector coupling and integration of generation-consumption systems, these are not yet mature. Fixed levies and overly complicated measurement and control requirements — among them, the broadening of the requirement to install smart metering on systems over 1 kW — present another problem.

That even violates the regulations of the EU Renewable Energy Directive, which prohibits the imposition of fees and levies on self-consumption from PV plants up to 30 kW. In fact, the German federal government has until mid to transpose this into law. Furthermore, the government wants to keep pressure on PV system costs by extending the requirement for public tenders. Up to now, PV plants larger than kW could only be built and receive a fixed feed-in tariff if they were awarded a contract through a public tender, and the winners of such contracts have usually been ground-mounted systems.

The plan for the future is to have separate auctions for rooftop systems and then for all projects larger than kW with a gradual reduction of the limit to kW.

The Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft BSW and others see this plan as the biggest obstacle, since this segment accounts for up to half of annual PV expansion. In France, such tenders have already failed. Once the year period expires, network operators are no longer obliged to purchase or even accept power from these plants, many of which are still in good working order. Unless these proposals are improved, many old PV plants will likely be taken offline and then dismantled.

It is absolutely essential that Federal Minister of Economics Peter Altmaier summons the courage for meaningful, forward-looking EEG reforms, and does not once again cave in to the wing of his party that is driven by business interests, which apparently would prefer not to bear any of the costs of the energy transition.

The hydrogen strategy — indeed, the entire energy policy of the federal government — is not yet a sustainable climate protection policy. Yet, without a dramatic increase in the pace of renewables expansion, which is also increasingly being demanded by the EU, it will no longer be possible to change course. In Germany at least, the pace of new PV construction has continued unabated in recent months. According to recent surveys, the 52 GW upper limit once set by the German federal government for state-funded systems would already have been reached, but fortunately the scare was eliminated before it came to that.

Now that the handbrake that many companies had pulled as a precaution has been released, the run on available capacity is in full swing. Even the less popular consignments of multicrystalline modules in the lower performance classes have now disappeared from the market, apart from a few containers-full.

All that remains for project planners eager to build is to rely on new orders. However, since most solar panels have to be imported from Asia, longer lead times and higher prices can be expected. Change in global demand for modules has always been a key driver for price adjustments.

At present, however, there are different trends and contradictory forecasts of demand. In Europe, the solar PV industry is booming — at least it is in those areas where it is possible to work efficiently despite coronavirus-related restrictions. High demand is expected above all from China itself, and this should already be in full swing, but it has not yet been felt on the world market. I already reported last month on the incentive programs that have yet to be fully utilized this year and which could absorb up to 40 GW.

At present, however, the supply situation for new orders for delivery in the last few months of the year is still quite relaxed, making it increasingly unlikely that the forecast volumes will actually be reached. The situation in North and South America, usually key markets for PV panels, also speaks against any dramatic shortage of supplies. Steadily rising numbers of Covid infections are causing problems for many companies, resulting in installation figures that fall short of expectations.

Some manufacturers are reporting deliveries that have either been significantly delayed or canceled altogether, especially from their customers in the United States and Brazil. One factor in the pricing of solar products, at least in Europe, is the U. Following a relatively weak euro at the beginning of the year due to the threat of a dire economic situation triggered by the escalating pandemic in many European countries, the pendulum is now swinging in the other direction.

President Trump seems to have neither the spread of the virus nor the economic decline under control. Consequently, the dollar is also coming under increasing pressure, which is causing a drop in module prices in Europe, which are mostly calculated on a dollar basis. But this trend may well weaken or reverse over the course of the year. On the coronavirus front, everywhere in the world the daily number of new infections is still high. With Europe already well on the way to containing the coronavirus crisis, many now fear that a second wave will either come on the heels of the summer travel season or is already gathering steam.

China alone seems to have low figures, and the crisis there is rarely discussed in public. Yet, this does not seem entirely credible, given the conditions prevailing in the rest of the world.

As is so often the case, a two-pronged approach is not a bad idea. For important projects or those which are not so price-sensitive, materials should be procured immediately, but buyers should not be eager to agree to price increases, however justified. At the moment there is no real urgency, but there is still a lot of room for manufacturers to interpret future market developments. For projects that are only attractive once prices come down, the spot market should be the preferred option.

In the coming months, there will certainly be the odd batch that can be purchased at an attractive price. The overall decline in prices that has set in over the past months continues for the time being — price reductions in the upper single-digit percentage range are evident across all technologies.

Although demand in the European market is stable to growing, there are still large-volume surplus stocks in many places, which have piled up due to coronavirus-related delays in project implementation and are only slowly being drawn down again. The usual end-of-quarter inventory adjustments have prompted broad-based price cuts, which continue to dominate the market at the beginning of the second half of the year. Manufacturers and dealers are undercutting each other for in-stock items available at short notice to make room for new shipments.

This trend will be short-lived, in Europe at least, as the race to catch up is already in full swing. EPC and project companies at home and abroad have full order books, while banks and licensing authorities are also working off their backlogs quickly. The satisfaction of a well-functioning market is clouded, to say the least, by the uncertainty among some banks and investors arising from the ongoing patent dispute. In the meantime, the so-called bankability of the three accused manufacturers has been called into question, and investors for projects using their products have threatened to pull financing.

JinkoSolar, for one, has asserted from the very beginning that its current module production, or rather its currently available products, were not affected by the lawsuit. The other two competitors have remained cautious in this respect and have preferred to refrain from making public statements. But the word on the street is that REC has reduced its product range to the Alpha series, which uses n-type cells, which for technological reasons cannot be affected by the legal dispute. Longi Solar is also likely to reduce the delivery volumes of specific products for the time being until there is greater clarity in the proceedings, but in particular, until the demands of Hanwha Q-Cells are made public.

Buyers who want to play it safe with new orders should seek a binding clarification of the patent situation from their supplier in the form of a separate written confirmation. This document is particularly useful in cases where there is no existing supply contract containing clauses on the legality of the technologies used. Under no circumstances should the buyer hastily agree to a change in the supply terms and conditions without reviewing the legal consequences.

There have been cases where manufacturer representatives have advised their customers to buy directly from the Asian parent company rather than from their German supplier. The patent lawsuit would only be valid in Germany. As the importer, the purchaser then assumes liability for the dubious products.

Even for an installation in another European country, the buyer is unlikely to be automatically off the hook since the patent is a European one, and Hanwha Q-Cells can extend its claim at any time. Clearly formulated statements of confirmation quickly dispelled concerns of the banks and investors in the cases submitted to me, clearing the way of any obstacles to the progress of the projects.

In any case, it is important to be vigilant in the selection of suppliers and products. For the time being at least, the patent dispute has not had any effect on the availability of monocrystalline modules in the European market or on product prices — other mechanisms are at work here. How much farther can prices drop? This sell-off, which could be the downfall of some smaller manufacturers with a low capital base, is unlikely to cover costs at all.

If this situation continues for a prolonged period, market adjustments will inevitably occur. Only the financially stable manufacturers can survive a phase of low prices, such as the one we are currently witnessing. However, stabilization is generally expected due to increasing demand, especially in China. Funding programs are in place there, and so far, the uptake of these programs has been sluggish, but they still need to be utilized by the end of the year.

There is talk of installation volumes in the 25 GW to 40 GW range for the third and fourth quarters. Any module not tied to a binding purchase agreement at an early stage will not leave Asia, as the Chinese market will absorb any production capacity. However, we know from past experience that such forecasts are not always accurate. Nevertheless, provisions should be made quickly for projects scheduled for completion in the short to medium term in order to avoid unpleasant surprises.

Betting on further falling prices is pure gambling. At the current rate of plant construction, this shrinks feed-in tariffs by 1. Fortunately, recent weeks have brought considerable price adjustments from module and inverter manufacturers — and they are heading down. Price reductions that had already started showing up in May finally reached the market in June — at least for current orders with delayed delivery dates. And that brings us to the crux of the matter: Anyone who is expecting to pay the same price for solar panels delivered today as those quoted for PV modules with delivery in the fourth quarter will likely be sorely disappointed.

Although there are currently no bottlenecks — products from all technology sectors and numerous brands are sufficiently available — the modules currently available often have production dates that lie far in the past. In recent months, it has taken modules much longer than usual to travel from Asia to Europe — courtesy of Covid In the spring, however, raw materials prices were still significantly higher and the shutdown and ramp-up of production has entailed considerable additional costs.

The potential for price reductions for these goods, which are now available at short notice, is therefore severely limited. Now that the viral problems have been solved — for the time being at least — prices are falling for all technologies, especially for monocrystalline modules high efficiency, all black, and bifacial.

Reference values also had to be adjusted because more and more module formats are being introduced to the market, resulting in higher outputs per module but without a significant increase in efficiency by area due to the larger surface of these panels. Leading the renewed fall in prices are the top six producers in the industry, measured by reported production capacity.

Trina Solar, Hanwha Q Cells, Canadian Solar, JA Solar, JinkoSolar and especially Longi Solar are continuously increasing production capacity and module size while aggressively marketing their products at attractive prices that none would have thought possible until recently. It is highly doubtful whether many of the smaller manufacturers will be able to withstand this price war.

We are likely to see the beginning of a market shakeout in the second half of the year. Hanwha Q Cells is still hoping to gain the upper hand over some competitors in its patent dispute on cells with back emitter passivation. Even though the first round of court proceedings in the United States ended in defeat, it has now scored success in a German court. It is still unclear whether this victory will have any impact on the market or products of the defendant competitors, Longi Solar, JinkoSolar and REC Group.

In a press release following the ruling, JinkoSolar said it would no longer produce or offer for sale cells and modules affected by the patent lawsuit. At the time of writing, the other defendants had not yet issued statements. All of the conditions are in place for a hard-charging German market — high demand, good availability at attractive prices, and a stable policy framework.

Right up to the last minute, however, the German solar industry was shaking in its boots and worrying whether the government would act before the 52 GW cap was reached and implement the policy change it had announced many months ago.

After all, the summer recess for the government and parliament will soon begin. Now, although the decisive step has been taken, a painful ending may yet be in the offing. A further amendment to the EEG has been definitively announced for the fall. Please surprise us this time, dear Grand Coalition! Along with new innovations and the renaissance of well-known cell technologies such as heterojunction and n-type, we are seeing an increase in module surface area with the introduction of ever larger cells.

Just a year or two ago, modules on the market were almost exclusively made from so-called M2 wafers, in both full and half-cell variants. Now we seem to be entering the era of XXL cell formats. This development is taking place almost exclusively with monocrystalline cells — there have been hardly any advances in multicrystalline products.

JinkoSolar has been using cells with an edge length of The output of modules using these cells ranges from W to W, and the dimensions are about 10 mm to 30 mm larger than those of a conventional cell module, depending on the version — which means they are still very easy to handle and process.

These are cell panels typically rated at W to W, or cells at W to W, because this size cell can only be processed once they are sliced in half. If whole cells were used, the current would be so high that available inverters would not be able to handle it.

Peak DUO G8 series. Modules of these types are as wide as 1, mm to 1, mm and 1, mm to 2, mm long, depending on the version. Trina Solar unveiled its Vertex W panel this spring. It apparently uses M12 wafers manufactured by Zhonghuan Semiconductor with a whopping mm edge length. The resulting cells each have an output of more than 10 W at a rated current of 18 amperes. Trina Solar simply divides the cells into thirds and incorporates of them into its module, five columns side by side, which delivers W to W modules.

JinkoSolar followed suit with its own giant module using a somewhat smaller, yet more exotic cell format of around mm by 9 mm. The brand-new series, called Tiger Pro, offers a version with tiled cells, which should generate W to W, and W to W in the cell version.

The market demands ever cheaper modules. For years, price reduction has been achieved by optimizing and scaling production. However, the capacities of individual companies are now so huge that even in terms of scale, only slight cost reductions can be expected.

Since the market does not pay for the module per se but for its average power output, it makes sense to continue to increase peak power per module. This means that more and more money can be demanded per module at the same unit cost, which in turn increases return on investment, which has been extremely meager in recent years.

In fact, after nearly a year of stagnation, we can see that prices for highly efficient modules are slowly starting to fall again. At present, this is still influenced by the difficult supply situation, but it is already making itself felt in contract prices with longer lead times. However, producers are still reluctant to pass on all of the cost advantages of the new module types with higher rated output to the market.

The upsizing is less pleasing for installers, however, as they have to adapt to new formats that change in rapid succession. Larger solar module surfaces with the same or smaller frame thicknesses also place new demands on the substructure, which may have to be redesigned.

Also, inverter design sometimes changes fundamentally in response to shifting electrical specifications. It does not always have to be cheaper, although many may find it strange to read this coming from me. These are also values that need to be taken into account for sustainable PV market development that determine overall cost — the so-called levelized cost of electricity LCOE of a project — of an installation over its lifetime.

Some technological concepts advocated on the basis of reduced LCOE can become a one-way street in the medium to long term. With manageable investments, these facilities could then provide useful service for a few more years. Unfortunately, for many applications the legal framework is still lacking, meaning that some wind farms will be threatened with complete decommissioning.

Most of these plants, however, are not facing a deadline for a subsequent use concept before the end of In the coming years, more and more systems will be affected, in line with installations added in the years after There are already projects, primarily PV, that manage completely without statutory feed-in tariffs, but these are mostly very large solar farms.

At present, however, we are sliding into a situation which makes the future of PV and wind seem anything but certain. Of course, there is still talk about the 52 GW cap for PV in Germany, which was supposed to be eliminated as part of the climate package put together by the government in Yet there is still no framework in sight for implementing this decision. Draft bills have been submitted to the German parliament several times, but voting has been repeatedly postponed.

Behind the scenes, there is still rumored haggling over distance regulations for onshore wind turbines — the cap on solar has apparently become a bargaining chip. The fact that the Covid crisis has brought many other important issues to the desk of Federal Minister of Economics Peter Altmaier has also contributed to the delay. Yet the fact that the cap has still not been done away with can be considered grossly negligent, as the decision to do so was made long ago. There is far more at stake here than numerous jobs in the renewable energy sector.

It can be concluded that the solar cap is perceived as a bigger problem within the industry than Covid The effects of the pandemic are generally limited to slightly more difficult working conditions and a shortage of labor for medium- and large-sized projects, which often involve foreign workers who are now lacking due to border closures.

The supply situation for modules, inverters and storage systems, which are primarily manufactured in China, is also somewhat tense. In April and May, the temporary shutdown in Q1 started to bite, and that has kept module prices stable for the moment. By June at the latest, however, the situation will have returned to normal if — yes, if — there was no solar cap! Despite the crisis, the order situation is very good, at least in the small- to medium-sized systems segment.

Order books are full and the mood among installers and dealers is good. Worries over an end to the EEG are not widespread in these circles, perhaps because for many small- and medium-sized plants, feed-in remuneration is no longer a primary concern. Savings achieved through covering on-site consumption are probably already more attractive than selling electricity, meaning an end to the solar incentive is not seen as very menacing in this case.

The situation is quite different for installers of larger rooftop and ground-mounted systems, whose business model is largely based on the existence of a FIT. This provides a long-term return, albeit very low, on which other sources of income can be built. Without this state-guaranteed security, many projects are simply not financially viable. At the current pace of expansion, it has now become very likely that the cap will be reached by the beginning of the second half of the year.

Many players in this sector therefore have serious concerns about the future, as urgently needed orders are simply no longer being placed. The great death spiral for solar companies has not yet returned, but it will not remain distant without immediate action. In southern Europe the Covid lockdown has already brought the solar industry to a standstill.

In Germany it could be a combination of both the lockdown and the end of the EEG law, but mainly the latter. This time around it could take a very long time for the industry to sort itself out again in a post-EEG era. But at some point, it really will be too late. I am not alone in seeing parallels between the threat posed by the virus and the need to advance the fight against climate change.

Unfortunately, the only fundamental difference between the two crises is how we deal with them. To contain the spread of Covid, heads of state and regional politicians are imposing measures that become more drastic by the day. But when it comes to the climate crisis, hope seems to be the guiding principle.

At some point we will come up with something that prevents or reverses climate change; the main thing is to keep the economy roaring and to not make any serious changes. The volume of traffic on the road, in the water and in the air has fallen sharply, since people started limiting their travel to what is really necessary.

People vacation mainly in their own countries, undertake long-distance travel only once a year at most, and then with the smallest possible carbon footprint.

Consumption is regionally focused to strengthen the local economy. Slightly higher prices are not a problem at all, because everything superfluous and wasteful is avoided.

A nice steak or some exotic fruit or vegetables are an occasional treat. On the whole, people enjoy the unhurried pace of society, friendly interaction at the office and in the streets, and emission-free fresh air. This may sound like a distant utopia, but it could soon be reality if we can finally learn from the current crisis and take the right course of action.

But will the coronavirus really have the power to bring about these economic and social upheavals in a more extreme and rapid way than a youth and climate movement could ever do? When each and every one of us, including the decision-makers themselves, is directly affected — a number of prominent politicians are already infected with the novel coronavirus — it is suddenly possible to impose and implement cuts that would have been completely unthinkable before. And yet the consequences of climate change and pollution of our air and water are already far more deadly than a viral infection ever will be.

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